I’m not great at statistics and probability, but isn’t it better when pushing yourself to choose +1 effect instead…

I’m not great at statistics and probability, but isn’t it better when pushing yourself to choose +1 effect instead…

I’m not great at statistics and probability, but isn’t it better when pushing yourself to choose +1 effect instead of +1d? Or am I missing something?

8 thoughts on “I’m not great at statistics and probability, but isn’t it better when pushing yourself to choose +1 effect instead…”

  1. You only get the +1 Effect if you ultimately have an Effect, no? It’s a risk, and the calculation varies widely by how many dice you’re rolling before that decision is made.

    And of course there’s those times when the Effect you’re told you will have is all you need to do/finish the thing.

  2. Effect isn’t the dice outcome, it’s how impactful the end of your roll is. Effect is that ladder of limited/standard/great — Number of dice ties directly into whether or not you’ll succeed and whether or not the GM will make moves against you. There’s not really a clear cut tie between the two to say effect is better than 1D.

  3. Incidentally, I’ve found it a helpful GM technique to not only have Mission clocks, but smaller clocks within the mission that create a time pressure for a given segment of the operation before some opportunity is lost.

    Without any time pressures, players will more often choose the +1d towards helping them mitigate their risk of failure. But if they need to do something quickly they’ll consider rolling fewer dice or taking a Devil’s Bargain and instead push to increase their potential Effect so they can fill up a Progress Clock more quickly.

    They may choose both, of course but Stress is a limited resource before a scoundrel is taken out.

  4. I just recently described positioning as “how bad things could get,” the die roll odds as “which way the action is likely to tip,” and effect as “how good the outcome could be.” That frame seemed to make intuitive sense to the players. It’s a trade-off between better odds versus slower success.

  6. Both are good options, but generally, you have more options to get extra effect in other ways – clever fictional positioning, setup actions, gear. There are fewer options available for extra dice.

    Additionally, extra effect makes your success better, if you succeed. Extra dice make it more likely that you’ll succeed in the first place.

  7. Got it. I was misinterpreting + 1 effect as being +1 level of success.

    I thought it was saying you have the choice of taking an extra die with the chance of rolling a 6 – full success, versus taking the risk of highest roll being 3 – bad outcome, but being able to bump it up one level to partial success.

    Thanks for explaining it without shade.

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